• Francois S. Marmion

Demography: the evolution that nobody speaks about

Updated: Sep 25

The population of many countries - including China - may halve by the end of the century, due to a drastic drop in fertility rates.


Most people have in mind that the world population will soon grow to more than 9.5 billion people by 2050. However, the world population might peak in 2064 and then start declining by the end of the century.

We all know that Western countries are subject to, at best, population stagnation. But the last surveys by The Lancet show that 23 countries may not only stagnate, but see their population reduced by half.

This, surprisingly, includes not only Spain and Japan, but potentially China as well.

The largest country to emerge from this revolution will be Nigeria, that may become the second biggest country in the world behind India and slightly ahead of China.

The potential impact on our societies will be colossal: we are not talking here about simple tensions to finance the pensions... but about a complete desertification of some areas of Europe, which raise the question of the long term migration flows.

For more details, read this excellent article from BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521